* Oil demand in India is projected to register a 2x growth to reach 11 million barrels per day by 2045.
* Diesel demand in India is expected to double to 163 MT by 2029-30, with diesel and gasoline covering 58% of India’s oil demand by 2045.
* Consumption of natural gas in India is expected to grow by 25 billion cubic metres (BCM), registering an average annual growth of 9% until 2024.
* Crude oil imports increased by 5.7% and 0.9% during January 2024 and April-January 2023-24 respectively as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.
* India aims to commercialize 50% of its SPR (strategic petroleum reserves) to raise funds and build additional storage tanks to offset high oil prices.
* Indian refiners would add 56 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by 2028 to increase domestic capacity to 310 mtpa.
* Indian refining capacity has increased from 215.1 Million Metric Tonne Per Annum (MMTPA) to 256.8 MMTPA in last 10 years.
* In July 2021, the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) approved an order allowing 100% foreign direct investments (FDIs) under automatic route for oil and gas PSUs.
* The Government has allowed 100% Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in upstream and private sector refining projects.
* In budget 2024-25, Rs. 497.25 crore (US$ 59.75 million) allocated to scheme for Development of Pipeline infrastructure for injection of Compressed Biogas (CBG) in City Gas Distribution (CGD) Network.
* In May 2022, the government approved changes in the Biofuel Policy to bring forward the target for 20% ethanol blending with petroleum to 2025-26 from 2030.
One of India's eight core businesses is the oil and gas industry, which has a significant impact on all other major economic sectors. Rapid economic growth is leading to greater outputs, which in turn is increasing the demand of oil for production and transportation. According to the IEA (India Energy Outlook 2021), primary energy demand is expected to nearly double to 1,123 million tonnes of oil equivalent, as the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase to US$ 8.6 trillion by 2040.
India retained its spot as the third-largest consumer of oil in the world, as of 2023. India’s consumption of petrol products stood at 222.3 MMT in FY23, while crude oil production stood at 29.16 MMT in FY23. Assam, Gujarat, and Rajasthan account for more than 96% of oil production in India. As of March 1, 2024, India had 10,941 kms of crude pipeline network, with a capacity of 153.1 MMTPA.
India has 23 refineries - 18 are in the public sector, two in the joint sector and three in the private sector. India’s state refineries have upgraded their facilities to comply with a new government requirement to produce oil products with the equivalent of Euro VI emission standards. India’s total installed provisional refinery capacity stands at 253.91 MMT as of April 2023, making it the second-largest refiner in Asia. Private companies own about 35% of the total refining capacity.
India is one of the largest exporters of refinery products due to the presence of various refineries. In terms of trade, exports of petroleum products from India reached 51.4 MMT in FY24 (until January 2024). In FY23, crude oil imports stood at 4.67 MBPD. In FY24 (until January 2024), the crude oil production in India stood at 22.71 MMT.
India, the world’s fourth largest crude oil refiner, is expected to add one million barrels per day (mb/d) of refining capacity by 2028.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India’s medium-term outlook for natural gas consumption remains solid due to rising infrastructure and supportive environment policies. Industrial consumers are expected to account for 40% of India’s net demand growth. The demand is also expected to be driven by sectors such as residential, transport and energy.
As per data released by Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), FDI inflows in India’s petroleum and natural gas sector stood at US$ 8.18 billion between April 2000-December 2023.
There have been multiple partnerships in the sector. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (BPCL) and Microsoft have established a strategic cloud partnership targeted at speeding up the company's digital transformation and influencing the oil and gas industry's future innovation. India and the US have also agreed to expand their energy collaboration by focusing on emerging fuels, which was followed by a ministerial conference of the US-India Strategic Clean Energy Partnership (SCEP).
India aims to commercialise 50% of its SPR (strategic petroleum reserves) to raise funds and build additional storage tanks to offset high oil prices. Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi has announced that the Government of India plans to invest Rs. 7.5 lakh crore (US$ 102.49 billion) on oil and gas infrastructure in the next five years. There were 89,396 OMC retail outlets in India, as of March 1, 2024.
The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB), the downstream regulator, in March 2023, announced that it has amended the PNGRB Determination of Natural Gas Pipeline Tariff regulations to incorporate provisions for Unified Tariff for natural gas pipelines with a mission of “One Nation, One Grid, and One Tariff.” Based on the regulations, PNGRB has notified a levelized Unified Tariff of Rs. 73.93/MMBTU and created three tariff zones for Unified Tariff, where the first zone is up to a distance of 300 kms from the gas source, the second zone is 300-1.200 kms, and the third zone is beyond 1,200 kms.
India’s oil and gas production is expected to achieve a mid-decade peak between 2023-2032, around 2027, driven by the KG-Basin projects operated by Reliance Industries Limited and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC).
In May 2022, the Government announced a reduction in excise duty of Rs. 8 (US$ 0.10) per litre on petrol and Rs. 6 (US$ 0.077) per litre on diesel, to combat the high fuel prices. In the same month, the government approved changes in the Biofuel Policy to bring forward the target for 20% ethanol blending with petroleum to 2025-26 from 2030.
In the Union Budget 2022-23, the customs duty on certain critical chemicals such as methanol, acetic acid and heavy feed stocks for petroleum refining were reduced.
By 2030, India wants to increase its refining capacity by double, to 450–500 million tonnes. On the back of ongoing strong economic expansion, it is predicted that India's energy demand will increase more quickly than that of any other major global economy. Consequently, India’s energy demand as a percentage of global energy demand is expected to rise to 11% in 2040 from 6% in 2017.
References: Media Reports, Press Releases, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, News Articles, International Energy Agency, BP Statistical Review 2020
Notes: MMTPA - Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum, LNG - Liquefied Natural Gas, MMSCM - Million Metric Standard Cubic Meters, BCM – Billion Cubic Meters, MCMPD - Million Cubic Metres Per Day
